Shimshal Valley Pakistan

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Populations

China Club Discussions

December 8, 2010

“World Population and the implications of alternative projections”

Larry Lesser and I have chosen 'World Population" as the topic for discussion at

the December 8th, 2010 China Club meeting.

It seemed to us that many solutions to many political problems that we discuss

frequently would change dramatically depending on whether the world's population

to grow exponentially, stabilize around a higher total, or even decline in the future.

So we are offering you some detailed information about this topic in advance.

A link to the U.S. Census Bureau projection for world population between now and

2050.

A link to the Census Bureau projection of the growth rates in the world population

for the same period.

A link to the UN projection. (it's necessary to select the variables..select 'all

variants'..see 'low variant.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-20-countries-with-the-fastest-declining-populations/

And finally a link to an alternative but credible projection by Fred Pearce the

author of "The Coming Population Crash: And Our Planet's Surprising Future," 

People have been worrying about the world’s pending overpopulation for more two

centuries. Robert Thomas Malthus sounded the alarm in 1797 with "An

Essay on the Principles of the Population," which predicted mass starvation and

was influential with Charles Darwin and Margaret Sanger. 

(Malthus must have had something like the concept of 'carrying capacity' in mind.

The technology optimists argue that there is always going to a fix for whatever

problem we confront. Others think that the earth as Gaia is a finite resource and

that at some point limits can be exceeded. Here's a link to a discussion of the idea

of 'carrying capacity.'

Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 book, "The Population Bomb," forecast a similar fate; if the

the population kept rising unchecked, Earth’s resources would buckle. 

Many of today’s environmental thinkers, such as broadcaster (and "Planet Earth"

narrator)  David Attenborough, have called for drastic measures to limit the

planet’s population before it’s too late.

But according to the veteran environmental writer Fred Pearce, they’re all wrong.

In his latest book, "The Coming Population Crash: And Our Planet's Surprising

Future," Pearce argues that the world’s population is peaking. In the next century,

we’re heading not for exponential growth, but a slow, steady decline. 

This, he claims, has the potential to massively change both our society and our

planet: 

Children will become a rare sight, patriarchal thinking will fall by the wayside, and

middle-aged culture will replace our predominant youth culture. 

Furthermore, Pearce explains, the population bust could be the end of our

environmental woes. Fewer people making better choices about consumption could

lead to a greener, healthier planet.

Is Fred Pearce a Bjorn Lomborg?...the Skeptical Environmentalist... or is he

perhaps right about a population decline sooner than anyone ever thought.

Fred Pearce is not a professional demographer but a credible science and

environmental writer. 

Here is his article on Population Day.

Here is a review of the book by the London-based publication The Independent.

If you, like I, enjoy reading the comments of readers who purchase books from

Amazon...here is a link to some comments on Pearce's book.

You probably will accept the notion that the population of Earth determines its

destiny.

Consider some basic facts;

While it took around 130 years (1800 to 1927)  for the world's population to go

from 1 billion to 2…only 33 years more to go to 3 billion,… then 15 years to 4

billion…another 12 years to 5 billion,… again 12 years to 6 billion in 1999…  and

then an estimated 14 years to 7 billion in 2013 …are we doomed to unsustainable

levels of the population?

For example, how are these billions to be fed and how are they to be provided

energy and to be governed? Will we continue to muddle through?

While the impetus of population growth is mainly new births, life expectancy has

doubled since 1950…so the net increases are greater….so populations measured

at any one point in time will have grown from previous measurements at both

ends…babies are born and older people live longer. Will we continue to achieve

through science additional increases in longevity?

While only 7 billion of the total of 100 billion who have ever lived is alive today,

close to 1/2 the people who have ever reached the age of 65 are alive today.

What are the consequences of a proportional increase in the above-65 population?

Faced in his time with the seeming inexorability of the growth of population and a

'limit' on agricultural production, Malthus predicted pandemic, war, and famine.

And while wrong, he was terribly influential for a long period of time...the

concerns he raised are still being debated.

For example, his views determined the British response to the Irish famine during

which a million died ...while beef was being exported to Britain from the 'ranches'

of wealthy English landholders.

Darwin's ideas were cited as evidence that only the fittest must survive and were

used to justify to some the decision to allow the Irish to starve or to immigrate….

to do otherwise it was argued, would have been to simply postpone the inevitable…

and some argue that Malthus' theories gave birth to the toxic eugenics movement…

the predecessor to environmentalism and to the birth control movement ….there's

some irony there....for example, Planned Parenthood (previously American Birth

Control League) and Margaret Sanger its founder were relevant because of the

concerns raised by Malthus.

Gunnar and Alva Myrdal were well-known advocates of eugenics…smart people

who when confronted with the demographics became convinced of the necessity of

very drastic actions to 'cull' the population of the unfit.

( I had never considered this relationship between fear of population explosion and

eugenics, conservation, population control, and eventually the 'right to choose.'

What about you?) 

And to many, there is a concern that modern science has reduced the efficacy of

the process of 'survival of the fittest' that produced today's ecosystem...what

threat does man's intervention in 'evolution' present?

But...what about this fact... world fertility peaked in the 1950s at about 6

children/woman.

During that period 15% of the population was under 5 years old. 

Today an average woman has 2.6 children and the fraction of the world's

population under 5 is 10%. One-half of the women in the world today are having

2 or fewer children… not just in Europe, especially Russia,…. but in Iran, India,

Burma, Brazil, and South Africa.

The growth rate of the world's population peaked at 2.1%/yr in  the late 1960s

primarily due to longer life expectancy rather than increasing birth rates…

and today the average age is 30 but at the death of that average person, the

average age maybe 50.

In some countries, there are already less than 2 workers supporting each retiree.

Europe is in negative momentum already…that is fewer girls are born than in the

generation before. If each generation produces only 1.6 children to replace two

adults, then 5 women are producing only 4 women for the next generation…

Fred Pearce, the author of "The Coming Population Crash and our planet's

surprising future"  predicts that by 2050 the world's population may be declining.

He argues that the population will decline before 2050 principally because women

are able to choose to have fewer children.

Fred Pearce may not be right …but his arguments can be persuasive.

So for the purposes of our discussion on December 8, 2010 discussion, let's

assume that he is.

What, then, are some of the impactions of a future declining population?

1. An increase in the average age of the population is a given.

2. Less young people to work and to pay for the support of the older population...

will countries resort to 'managing population?...as an example, France already

'encourages' larger families through its tax system.

3. The likely necessity, therefore, that everyone works longer...but will there be

jobs for both the elderly and the young?

4. The impact of the influence of this aging population on politics …more

peace-loving or not?…wiser or not?

5. Since women will continue to outnumber men at all ages except at birth where

boys still outnumber girls 1.05 to 1 (nature's means of accounting for the earlier

deaths of males?) , will the influence of women on politics increase….is a

matriarchy in the future?

6. The importance of immigration…countries whose populations decline most

rapidly will need emigrants and will welcome them instead of attempting to keep

that out as is the case today. (as an aside…the repatriation of wages earned by

immigrants to their home countries and families remain to some experts the

most effective means of 'foreign aid' yet identified.)

7. A decline in the demand for housing since fewer young people will need housing

in relation to the existing housing stock.

8. A need for greater productivity of workers in order to continue an economy that

can maintain a high standard of living...a greater reliance on technology as the

means of increasing productivity?

9. An increase in the use of robots as one technological means of increasing

productivity...and replacing human workers not to be born.

10. In the extreme, demand for the creation of 'beings' with diminished sensitivity

as a substitute for unborn 'workers,'

11. a dramatic increase in surrogate birth as a means of increasing birth rates.

12. some form of a 'brave new world.'

Thomas Landrum..Revolutionary War veteran

Thomas Landrum, according to a transcribed...by my cousin Susan Merritt Elder...petition for a military pension was born in Orange County, Va.  in 1759. He would be the 7th generation ancestor of Mya Calderone...and the sixth generation relative of James, Jessica, Nyal, Kailen, and Liam.

He fought in the Revolutionary War, was present at Valley Forge, Pa, during the cold winter and fought in the Battle of Monmouth, NJ.

Revolutionary War pensions were not grand...say $20/month.

Also veterans could receive grants of land as an inducement to enlist or reenlist or to take commissions or as pensions. George Washington is said to have ‘bought’ the ‘land rights’ of some of his soldiers who fought with him earlier in the French and Indian War. He did so partly to provide liquidity to his soldiers who needed cash more than land.

Over time through one means or another Washington accumulated large tracts of land. After he resigned his commission as military commander in chief after the Revolutionary War, he spent much of the time between then and when he became the first President surveying the land and arguing that the sale of land in the Ohio Valley was a potential source of revenue...over and above the only other source of revenue ...tariffs...to provide with cash any ‘new’ Government which replaced that formed under the ‘Articles of Confederation’.

““Between 1747 and 1799 Washington surveyed over two hundred tracts of land and held title to more than sixty-five thousand acres in thirty-seven different locations.”7 Land was the future. “Land is the most permanent estate and the most likely to increase in value,” wrote a youthful Washington.8

Washington in need of cash himself built a very successful distillery on his estate at Mt. Vernon. 

Thomas Landrum is our relative because my Mother, Martha Bell Eberhardt was born to Mary Landrum, the second wife of Dr. David Eberhardt...known by some as the 'best pneumonia doctor in North Georgia'. Mary Landrum was the daughter of William Landrum who served the Civil War.

Thomas Landrum and his wife Nancy Belle...my Mother's middle name...Belle... came from Nancy and their servant (!) Violet...were founding members of the Antioch Baptist Church in Oglethorpe, Ga. There may have been mixed congregations then...but I am not sure.

Thomas Landrum served later in the War of 1812 as a Colonel. He was granted a pension but died a year after it is granted.

So any female members of our family may apply to join the Daughters of the Revolution (DAR)..but remember that the DAR would not allow Marian Anderson to sing at Constitution Hall because the District of Columbia was segregated. Later it did invite her and she sang several times at Constitution Hall in Washington.

Male relatives are not eligible to join the Society of the Cincinnati because Thomas Landrum was not an officer in the Revolutionary War.

Here is his pension application:

Coincidence in Mogadishu

Coincidence in Mogadishu

Our new neighbor just stopped by our house in Georgetown. He

recently retired from the U.S. Navy at a Rear Admiral rank. He is a

Seal. 

He came to relate the status of his two new daughters both born last

night maybe a month prematurely. They were carried by a surrogate

mother. His wife's first husband, also U.S. Navy, committed suicide

and she raised three boys by herself...the youngest of which is now

16 and lives with them and attends Gonzaga Catholic High School in

Washington. 

After marrying several years ago...they had known each other in grade

school at the Naval Station in San Diego on Coronado Island...both

being from ‘Seal’ families, our neighbors decided to have children via

in-vitro fertilization using a surrogate mother and donated eggs. We

were able to look in on one via a webcam in the ICU in San Diego. He

will join his wife shortly to bring them home.

In addition to the news about the baby girls, we discovered that 'we'

have another connection with our neighbors....'we' in this case being

really Chris.

When he heard from me that Chris had served a short tour in Somalia

in 1992 while in the Navy paying back for his medical school education,

our neighbor-visitor related that he led the Seal team that

reconnoitered the beach at Mogadishu, Somalia before the invasion in

1992 by the US and 22 other countries in the so-called

'Operation Restore Hope' campaign. He described swimming in with his

seal team...he was the leader...maybe 15 times from a ship offshore

mapping routes for landing boats and identifying the location of

defenses.

He said that he had never seen anything like the actual assault. He

remembered especially vividly the Apache gunships hovering behind

the hills waiting to pounce on any Somali militia to appear. 

U.S. Marines storm Mogadishu, Somalia

The actual landing of troops was relatively uneventful because the

psyops beforehand had convinced the Somali militia to leave the city.

So the civilian population welcomed the Western troops hoping they

brought food and medicines. In fact, if you recall, media people still in

Mogadishu took pictures of the seals and marines coming ashore. Of

course, later, came the infamous ‘Blackhawk Down’ incident.

Chris flew into Mogadishu shortly after the invasion secured the

beach and nearby airport and set up shop along the runway. He was

the medical officer of a Navy Seabee battalion.  Chris said that the

Seabees brought in every single thing they needed...lumber, nails,

plywood, power tools, generators, fuel...they secured nothing from

the economy. Even water was provided by a ship anchored off the

airport supplied to shore by a floating pipe.

"During the operation, Army engineers and Navy Seabees repaired or

constructed more than 1,200 miles of roads, drilled 14 wells, and

erected a Bailey bridge across the Juba River near the town of Jilib."

During a 'supply'..meaning 'find some booze on the local

economy' run with a fire team and a couple of

vehicles, Chris encountered a nest...a couple of trucks,

10 men, and weapons off on a side road... of Somali

militia on the outskirts of the city. As the senior rank

in the party, Chris was in charge of organizing the

group but he was no combat platoon leader.

Fortunately, he had a ‘gunny’ Marine sergeant with

him who helped organize a perimeter line with proper fields of fire and

that kinda stuff. I think I recall that Chris told me that the Somali

militia guys, taken by surprise by an unexpected US military ‘force’,

surrendered without much of a fight. I think Chris would have gotten

to wear a campaign medal indicating participation in combat, except

that the ‘supply’ run had been 'spontaneous' and the brief encounter

unreported in official logs.

Chris tells this additional story about himself: As a child of the 1970s

and the Vietnam War, the US military was not his favorite institution.

But he signed up for a 4 years tour in return for which the US Navy

paid for his medical education.

He hit some rough spots early in his tour adapting to the culture of the

US military after 4 years at Williams College...mostly in the library

trying to graduate. Part of his introduction to the Navy was time spent

at The San Diego Naval Hospital where he spent his internship...not

far from Coronado. Chris lived on the beach in a house next to the

concrete ‘boardwalk’ on which skateboarders would be seen being

running path on which skateboarders were pulled along by their dogs.

After Somalia and seeing the planning, coordination, and execution of

the battle plan, Chris observed, wryly, that  

 

"If you must go to war...go to war with the US Navy."